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Opportunity brief

Turn an observed opportunity into a bounded decision.

A concise brief for deciding whether to pursue an opportunity.

Sample purpose

Turn an observed opportunity into a bounded decision.

Audience: Product manager, Founder
Structure
4 sections
Criteria
12
Sources
8
Watches
6
Default approach
Review first
See the sample

Set the purpose first. Then change every section, criterion, and agent setting before anything runs.

Fictional sample

Structure and criteria

Sample content shows the shape of a useful document. Copying it is optional.

  1. 01

    Opportunity statement

    Describe the opportunity and who experiences it.

    Review first

    Criteria

    • Separates what was observed (6 to 10 weekly cancellations at three salons) from the inferred opportunity
    • Names the customer role and quantifies how often and how costly the gap is
    • Describes a capability gap, not a product feature

    Sources

    Watches

    • Searches “salon appointment cancellation no-show rate” monthly

    Agent may read api.openalex.org and search the web.

    Sample content

    Three Beacon Patch salons reported 6–10 weekly cancellation gaps. The opportunity is a same-day waitlist that lets opted-in clients claim open slots.

  2. 02

    Evidence and gaps

    Make supporting signals and missing evidence visible.

    Review first

    Criteria

    • Each signal states its source type and a confidence that matches sample size (not high on 8 interviews)
    • Each gap says what observation would close it
    • Includes at least one signal that argues against the opportunity

    Sources

    Watches

    Agent may read api.openalex.org.

    Sample content

    SignalConfidenceGap
    6 of 8 fictional owner interviews mention cancellation gaps.MediumClient willingness to receive alerts.
  3. 03

    Decision experiment

    Specify the smallest test that can change the decision.

    Review first

    Criteria

    • The pass condition is a number reachable in the window (12 of 30 clients fill cancelled slots)
    • The test contains only the validating step, not the full solution
    • States why two salons can or cannot represent the wider market

    Sources

    Watches

    • Follows Evidence and gaps

    Sample content

    • ☑ Invite 30 opted-in clients at two salons for four weeks
    • ☑ Pass if 12 cancelled slots are filled
    • ☐ Build automated pricing rules
  4. 04

    Decision and next step

    Record the current choice and its owner.

    Review first

    Criteria

    • States one of pursue, pause or stop, and ties it to the experiment pass number (e.g. 14 of 30 filled, so pursue)
    • Names one decision owner (Nora) and the date the choice was made or is due
    • If the result is pause or stop, names the evidence gap that would reopen the question

    Sources

    Watches

    • Follows Evidence and gaps
    • Follows Decision experiment

    Sample content

    1. 2026-02-27 · Review pilotNora decides whether to fund a prototype.